Our methods and models
At EEFA, we undertake pioneering work with our research. This stems not only from leveraging existing approaches but also from developing and refining our own models and methods, which we then apply to our projects. This innovative approach enhances both our analysis and the evaluation and processing of data.
The Energy Balance Forecast Model
How will energy supply and consumption evolve across energy balance categories? To address this question and provide forecasts, we utilize an econometric energy balance forecasting model.
This model is designed to elucidate both energy consumption and supply dynamics, while also estimating energy costs for commercial enterprises and energy expenditures for private households. To achieve this, the model is structured into distinct components.
Exogenous Variables:
These encompass factors that influence energy supply and demand independently of national policy decisions. Examples include crude oil prices, exchange rates, and specific consumption tax rates mandated by governmental bodies (such as VAT, mineral oil tax, and natural gas tax).
Macroeconomic and sector-specific variables, such as gross domestic product, sectoral production trends, and disposable income, are also considered exogenous.
Utilizing energy prices and exogenous parameters, the model forecasts final energy consumption and non-energy consumption across various sectors:
- Energy-intensive sectors
- Energy-extensive sectors
- Transportation (rail, commercial road, motorized private transport, air transport, coastal and inland shipping)
- Private households (space heating, fuels, electricity)
- Greenhouse gas-intensive sectors
This structured approach allows us to provide robust insights into future energy trends and consumption patterns, supporting informed decision-making across sectors and industries.
Overview
Research in energy, resource, and climate economics must be both theoretically sound and application-oriented, and this is our commitment.
We advise public and private institutions using the latest economic methods. Our detailed sectoral and macroeconomic models examine relevant issues from national, European, and global perspectives.