Our methods and models

From research to development

At EEFA, we undertake pioneering work with our research. This stems not only from leveraging existing approaches but also from developing and refining our own models and methods, which we then apply to our projects. This innovative approach enhances both our analysis and the evaluation and processing of data.

Explaining and Predicting CO2 Emissions: The EU Emissions Trading Model

Industrial facilities participating in EU emissions trading face scrutiny over their short- and medium-term CO2 emissions. Our comprehensive multiregional and multisectoral model provides insights at the European level.

The model currently covers

  • Eleven industrial sectors, ranging from electricity generation and steel production to propylene manufacturing.
  • Nine technologies for electricity and heat production, tailored to each EU member state and the UK.

Focused on determining short- to medium-term emissions, the model incorporates macroeconomic factors such as

  • Economic growth
  • Price fluctuations and exchange rates
  • Demographic parameters including population size, household numbers, and structure
  • Climatic variables like temperature, precipitation, and prevailing winds

These influencing variables vary regionally and seasonally, and are meticulously integrated into our econometric time series model of the ARMA class. This model calculates monthly   CO2 certificate consumption, providing detailed differentiation across member states and industrial sectors.

Built upon an extensive database, our model incorporates diverse official statistics sourced from entities such as the EU Commission, Community Independent Translog file (CITL), Eurostat, UCTE, Destatis, the International Energy Agency (IEA), and national statistical offices across EU member states.

Research in energy, resource, and climate economics must be both theoretically sound and application-oriented, and this is our commitment.

We advise public and private institutions using the latest economic methods. Our detailed sectoral and macroeconomic models examine relevant issues from national, European, and global perspectives.

Copyright 2024. Energy Environment Forecast Analysis (EEFA)
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